The Shifting Demographics of Our Population
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In Medicine Hat, although you really could say almost any other rural community in Southeast Alberta, the rhythms of daily life have long been set by the cycles of agriculture, manufacturing, and the ebbs and flows of the oil and gas industry. Our city, once a thriving hub of productivity and community spirit, now faces a significant challenge as it heads into the mid-2020s. The demographics of the area are shifting, and with them, the economic landscape. How we respond now will have a big impact on our future. Let’s get into the data!
Changes to Our Local Demographics
Medicine Hat has long been known as a great place to retire and has a thriving community of senior citizens that represents a large portion of our total population. But this hasn't always been the case, as we've used to have a larger proportion of younger residents than retirees. That began to change over the last 20 years or so.
According to Statistics Canada, nearly 1 in 4 people within the 31,715-strong workforce of Medicine Hat are over the age of 55. And, while 55 years old isn't that close to retirement age, it's not that far away either. In economic terms, it might be helpful to view it this way: approximately 30% of the local workforce is expected to retire at some point within the next decade. That is a significant portion of our workforce leaving the labour market and contributing less to our economic growth and resilience.
This impending wave of retirements could erect substantial barriers to the city’s long-term growth and economic vitality. The aging workforce will have broad implications across various sectors, but some industries are more vulnerable than others. In particular, administrative support, transportation, and warehousing are heavily reliant on older workers, with more than 30% of employees in these roles aged 55 or older. As these experienced individuals retire, the onus falls on our community to attract and develop a new, capable workforce to maintain these critical services.
Shifting Sources of Population Growth
The long-term stability, prosperity and growth of our economy faces a significant hurdle: our birth rate is not sufficient to sustain the current population, let alone foster growth. Furthermore, the lure of larger provincial economic hubs like Calgary and Edmonton siphons off many young workers, leaving fewer young people to fill the shoes of retiring employees.
The signs of this age-related workforce crisis have become increasingly evident over the past two decades. Regional demographics have shifted dramatically, leading to an aging local population and a growing reliance on immigration to sustain population numbers. In 2001, for instance, there were 123 residents under 20 years old for every 100 residents aged 55 or older. By 2017, this ratio had reversed, with only 82 young people for every 100 older residents. The 55+ population surged by over 60% during this period, growing from around 15,000 to over 25,000, while the under-20 population grew by only 10%, reaching approximately 21,000.
In the past, local births and migration from other parts of Canada fueled our city’s population growth. However, reduced birth rates and a regional decline in the oil and agricultural industries have stalled growth from these sources. Natural population growth, defined as the number of births minus the number of deaths, is no longer sufficient to maintain the local population.
Statistics Canada’s 2021 Census data shows the overall population of the City of Medicine Hat rose by a mere 11 people from 2016 to 2021. During that same period. Medicine Hat’s working age population (aged 15-64) dropped by about 1,500. According to the Alberta Regional Dashboard, the number of small and medium-sized businesses in Medicine Hat, County of Forty Mile, Cypress County, and Redcliff have declined 1.2% in 2021 compared to 2020.
The Important Role of Immigrants in Our Economy
Immigration, particularly from outside Canada, has become a crucial element of our economic and population growth. By 2017, immigration had become the primary driver of population growth, with immigration rates more than doubling compared to the early 2000s. Despite this influx, the local workforce has still declined by over 10% since 2010, underscoring the depth of the demographic challenge.
Immigrants have become increasingly vital to our local economy and Canada’s as a whole. The latest Canadian Census reveals that immigrants make up over 11% of our local workforce. They are particularly concentrated in key industries that are crucial for our future. For instance, 22% of workers in nursing homes and residential care facilities are immigrants, reflecting the growing need for elder care in an aging population. Similarly, in the food and beverage manufacturing sector, 1 in 4 workers are immigrants.
Canadian Immigration and the Economy
The contributions of immigrants extend beyond direct workforce participation. For every 1,000 immigrant families with an average household income, nearly $100 million in new household expenditures are generated, most of which is spent locally. This influx includes $18 million per year on housing costs, $15 million on transportation, $8 million on food and groceries, and $20 million in taxes for local, provincial, and federal governments.
Nationally, immigration plays a similar role within the Canadian economy. Between 2017 and 2018, net immigration accounted for 80% of Canada’s population increase, with the remaining 20% accounted for through natural increase. Canada's population growth between 2018 and 2019, at 1.4%, was the highest rate of growth among G7 nations. This increase (over 531,000 people) was overwhelmingly driven (82%) by the arrival of immigrants and non-permanent residents. What’s more, Canada’s population growth may be entirely dependent on immigration by the 2030s.
What Role Does Rural Renewal Play?
The Rural Renewal initiative is a provincial immigration stream intended to address gaps in the local workforce and encourage permanent relocation to rural Alberta. Through this program, local businesses can access a global talent pool of capable workers willing to settle long-term in Medicine Hat. The permanence and stability of this kind of economic immigration is crucial for the long-term health of our economy.
Working on behalf of our regional partners – Bow Island, Cypress County, and Redcliff – our Economic Development department is administering the program. This means vetting applications, from both businesses and immigrant applicants to ensure a positive fit, assessing the candidate’s desire to relocate to Southeast Alberta, and ensuring that they will receive a livable wage in an eligible role with the applying business.
In Closing
As we navigate the challenges of an aging population and shifting demographics, the role of immigrants will become increasingly important. Their contributions, both economic and social, are vital to sustaining and revitalizing the community, ensuring that our city will continue to thrive in the face of further changes to our local demographics and economy. Rather than simply accept the “doom and gloom” of the statistics presented in the first half of this article, it’s important that we embrace the options we have moving forward. Immigration is a huge part of our economy now, let’s make this a welcoming environment where they want to stay!
If you would like to learn more about the Rural Renewal program, or if you are a potential candidate (business or immigrant), please visit the Southeast Alberta Immigration website as saimmigration.ca
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